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President's Trophy: Kiss of Death or Confidence-Booster?

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PostPosted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:32 pm
The current President's Trophy race is looking like this:

West
Van 107 (Games remaining: 3 - ANA, Flamers, Oil) <--not the most challenging lineup I must say
STL 106 (Games remaining: 3 - DET, PHX, DAL)

East
NYR* 109 (GR: 2 - PIT, WAS)
BOS 98 (GR: 2 - OTT, BUF)
*Clinched Eastern Conference.

This begs the question: do I temporarily cheer for the Rangers (or Blues), in the hopes they topple those $@!# arrogant Nuckleheads, or let the baby have its bottle? Statistically speaking, the President's Trophy is pretty much the kiss of death when it comes to winning the cup. It's not impossible but not likely. If VAN does lose to NYR and gets knocked down a peg, the "something-to-prove" factor might just give them the extra gravitas to win the big one this year. If the Nucks win el Presidente, I think it's more likely it will feed their arrogance and complacency, slow them down, and incite a premature playoff exit.

If Vancouver wins the cup, I will have to leave town. I have a really bad feeling this year.

Thoughts? Trophy or no trophy? [It's clear I have time on my hands with regard to post-season pastimes. Really the only other vested interest I have is in Ottawa doing well.]
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PostPosted: Tue Apr 03, 2012 8:50 pm
The roster iced for the 2001 Avalanche, what a team. Actually looking down the list all the way to the Rangers I think I can remember a handful of names off the teams.

I don't think it's so much a kiss of death as it is more of a showing of how challenging the Stanley Cup playoffs can be. Stats can be warped a lot of the time to either show the good or the bad. For the team who wins it, I'm sure they celebrate to an extent but more than anything I'm sure they'd rather have their photo taken by the Campbell Bowl/Whales Trophy. And we all know what's the most important...

In my opinion, the Presidents Trophy is more of a stepping stone. It's an achievement to win it I'm sure but the players are looking more ahead and I'm sure the brass/owners are more excited to have it than the players. Either way, I would hate to see the knuckle heads win, I wouldn't mind the claiming the regular season title though.
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PostPosted: Wed Apr 04, 2012 10:37 pm
Yeah, I don't mean really the kiss of death - just statistically and superstitiously speaking...
I think it just "seems" like the best team in the league should win the cup, and fortunately the playoffs are more exciting than that. There's nothing I like more than an 8th place team kicking the shit out of the 1st place team. (Wings '06 mwahaha) So...go Dallas or Phoenix, Go.
I hope that Buffalo makes 8th place, just to make it interesting in the East. I think Washington won't 'make it out of committee' in the 1st round if they get to the post-season.

update:
109
109
107
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 1:39 am
The President's Trophy is strictly speaking not a kiss of death at all.

The chance of winning the SC at random is 30/1 with the current number of teams, however 14 of those teams don't have the chance to play for it once the President's Trophy has been decided. So, in the playoffs, there is an average chance of winning at 1/16 (6, 25%) Of course, the decision is everything but random, but that average allows us to see if President's Trophy winners are overrepresented in failure or victory.

Since the 30 team system began in 2000, there have been three SC winners that were also PT winners (Wings 2008, 2002, Avs 2001). That is 3 hits in a mere 11 seasons just there. Statistically, if the President's Trophy was some sort of disadvantage, you would expect to see the PT winner go all the way in the playoffs more rarely than every 16 seasons. That is clearly not the case, though I haven't the time to go through the details for seasons with less than 30 teams and a different playoff system. Maybe someone would? :D

One could argue that the PT winner ought to be more of a favorite than 1/16 to win the SC, but where do you put the cutoff? There are, after all, often just a few points between the PT winner and the runner up. Moreover, there are 15 other teams in it as well.

President's Trophy, clearly not a curse since the 30 team implementation at least.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 2:02 am
Update, I see the President's Trophy was first awarded in 1985-86, 25 seasons ago. Now, in 1985, there were only 21 teams, but there were still 16 playoff teams.

In the 25 seasons since the President's Trophy was first awarded, the PT winner has also taken the Stanley Cup 7 times. That is a success rate of 28%, over four times the average 6,25%. I think it's fair to say that there's little in the statistics to support an argument that winning the Pres. Trophy is a disadvantage.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 11:42 am
I see no correlation with with the PT and losing the cup. It's just a superstition. Just like touching the conference trophy. I'd rather have my team with the PT than not if they have a shot at it.
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:18 pm
All I know is that NorwegianOiler's use of commas as a decimal point should be outlawed on this here forum. :lol:

And I also am going to need analysis of the number of teams that won their conference trophy, touched it and won the cup! :lol:
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 3:26 pm
On this here forum? You a southern belle, Racki? It could sound like it.

And I shall take no flak from citizens of a nation that still insists on using the imperial system for height and weight. Don´t be a punctuationalist, commas make fine decimal points.

Edit: I meant imperial, as it were
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PostPosted: Thu Apr 05, 2012 7:04 pm
My point is not getting across methinks...

I don't think the trophy is an actual detriment, I just think has power superstitiously - and I will take all the superstition, luck, flukes, acts of god, etc. I can get - basically whatever keeps the Canucks' names off a Stanley Cup ring. (Or panel or whatever you call the part of the cup where the names go - I'm sure Nor.Oil will know the entire history of the Cup's smelting process and will make me look silly and uninformed. :D )

Thanks for providing the stats. Please everyone cross your fingers or whatever it is you do. Can't say that any amount of superstition actually helps, but I think everyone does it - if we are losing an important game, I put on my Eberle t-shirt or my Hockey Canada t-shirt alternately, à la Rally Cap.

And commas are a-ok with me - I speak German and French. "La virgule" - that looks dirty.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 10:00 am
NorwegianOiler wrote:On this here forum? You a southern belle, Racki? It could sound like it.

And I shall take no flak from citizens of a nation that still insists on using the metric system for height and weight. Don´t be a punctuationalist, commas make fine decimal points.


:lol:

Our official documents use metric for that, and, well.. everything. However, I don't know anyone that relays their height / weight in metric. Hell, I know exactly my height/weight in imperial, but couldn't tell you it in metric without doing a conversion. :P In fact, at least in these parts of Canada, I'd say we're a weird bunch. We use a mix of the two systems. My height is measured in feet and inches, but you'll get the distance from here to Calgary in kilometers :P

But I will continue to harass you on using a comma for a decimal, just to be a cyber bully :P
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 10:06 am
HL: I'm believing less and less in superstition now, but I definitely agree... I sure as hell hope the Canucks stay off the cup for many many years! We'll never hear the end of it.
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PostPosted: Fri Apr 06, 2012 12:23 pm
I too hope that the Canucks keep losing, but the President´s Trophy will have nothing to do with it.
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PostPosted: Sat Apr 07, 2012 10:32 pm
lose and win the president's trophy.

The degree of pain I'm experiencing this evening is difficult to articulate.
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